Economia da prova: uma análise empírica do valor estratégico da perícia nas ações tributárias

Abstract

This dissertation develops and empirically tests the Economics of Evidence as an agenda of applied economics, dedicated to the analysis of expert evidence in tax judicial proceedings as an informational good, a strategic asset, and a central element of bounded rationality. It starts from the hypothesis that the strategic value of expert evidence, as perceived and practiced by tax attorneys, arises from the balance between the expected informational return and the economic, cognitive, and institutional costs of its production, in an environment marked by uncertainty, informational asymmetry, and procedural constraints. Methodologically, an approach specific to applied microeconomics is adopted, combining theoretical modeling of choice under constraints with empirical verification through binary logit and ordered logit models, estimated from primary data collected from tax attorneys. The interpretive cross-analysis of the models provides evidence of structural coherence between perception and behavior: whereas the binary logit delineates the decisional contour of the attribution of strategic value to expert evidence, the ordered logit reveals the intensity of this valuation throughout the agent’s cognitive process. The results indicate that the presence of a technical assistant acts as a complementary informational asset, reducing cognitive asymmetries and increasing the marginal utility of the evidence; that professional experience is transformed into technical discernment and rational selectivity; and that costs and delay function as barriers to evidentiary investment. Such evidence confirms the hypothesis of bounded rationality, demonstrating that tax judicial proceedings operate as an economic system of information production and circulation under constraints of cost, time, and predictability. It is concluded that expert evidence is not a neutral instrument, but a mechanism for the reduction of uncertainty and the redistribution of cognitive power, consolidating itself as an economic and strategic asset within judicial proceedings.