IImpacto do pix sobre o consumo: uma análise em painel dos estados brasileiros

Abstract

This dissertation investigates the impact of the brazilian instant payment system, pix, on household consumption across brazilian states. The main objective is to assess whether the adoption of pix has contributed to increasing household spending and promoting financial inclusion. The relevance of the study lies in establishing a connection between the introduction of pix and consumption dynamics, contributing to an emerging academic literature, particularly at the graduate level. To this end, panel data from the 26 brazilian states and the federal district, organized in annual and biannual frequency for the period 2010–2022, are used, with estimations based on fixed-effects and dynamic models. The results indicate that pix had a positive impact on aggregate consumption, although this effect proves to be sensitive to the econometric methodology and the periodicity of the data. The evidence suggests that pix may have stimulated consumption in the short run, but that, in the medium term, its net effect is limited, reflecting more a change in the means of payment than an effective expansion of aggregate demand. Nevertheless, the ease of use and wide adoption of pix suggest that, in the longer run, its effects may become more significant as financial digitalization consolidates and new payment tools become more widespread.