Análise de Intervenção aplicada nos sistemas de transporte aquaviários da Bahia de Todos os Santos

Abstract

The objective of this dissertation is to compare the perspective of intercurrences in the commuting flow of pedestrians between the urban regions of Ilha de Itaparica and Salvador, considering the transport modes of maritime crossing Lanchinhas and Ferryboat. The occurrence of outliers in the passenger flows of these modes will be carried out through the Intervention Analysis methodology of univariate time series. The research shows that the pendular flow of sea crossings between the two regions is linked to the historical links of the choices of these urban sites in the colonial maritime economy of Salvador and with the recent survival strategies of the families of Itaparica. The results show that the SARIMA (0,1,0)(0,1,1)12 model describes the two passenger flows in active commuting. The Ferryboat modal is more sensitive to externalities, with incidents observed in advance and lasting longer due to its integration with the road system through a bus terminal, providing greater interaction with the other urban regions of the Island of Itaparica. The Lanchinhas modal is more stable to changes by outliers, since it meets only the most local demands. Finally, the results also show that a failure to observe the effects associated with the sinking of a vessel in Lanchinhas modal on 08/24/2017, still revealing a strong social dependence of this modal that presents monopoly characteristics.