Periodic forcing in a three-level cellular automata model for a vector-transmitted disease

Abstract

A periodically forced two-dimensional cellular automata model is used to reproduce and analyze the complex spatiotemporal patterns observed in the transmission of vector infectious diseases. The system, which comprises three population levels, is introduced to describe complex features of the dynamics of the vector-transmitted dengue epidemics, known to be very sensitive to seasonal variables. The three coupled levels represent the human, the adult, and immature vector populations. The dynamics includes external seasonality forcing, human and mosquito mobility, and vector control effects. The model parameters, even if bounded to well-defined intervals obtained from reported data, can be selected to reproduce specific epidemic outbursts. In the current study, explicit results are obtained by comparison with actual data retrieved from the time series of dengue epidemics in two cities in Brazil. The results show fluctuations that are not captured by mean-field models. It also reveals the qualitative behavior of the spatiotemporal patterns of the epidemics. In the extreme situation of the absence of external periodic drive, the model predicts a completely distinct long-time evolution. The model is robust in the sense that it is able to reproduce the time series of dengue epidemics of different cities, provided that the forcing term takes into account the local rainfall modulation. Finally, an analysis is provided of the effect of the dependence between epidemics threshold and vector control actions, both in the presence and absence of human mobility factor.