Modelling the dynamics of dengue real epidemics

Abstract

We apply a mathematical model for dengue transmission that comprises the mosquito, the human population and control mechanisms applied to the mosquito population to study two epidemics dengue situations that occurred at Salvador, Brazil at 1995 and 2002. Using real data, we are able to determine the basic reproductive number of the epidemics, R0, as well as analysis its time evolution, R(t), during the epidemics. We shown that control mechanism applied only on the adult mosquito form are not sufficient to stop dengue transmission, emphasizing the importance of the control applied on the aquatic mosquito phase.