Incerteza bancária e disparidades regionais no Brasil

Abstract

In the banking sector environment, uncertainty about the future plays a key role in decision-making in the present. Given the relevance of uncertainty and its consequences, there is a growing interest in proxies capable of measuring its effects. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the use of the concept of loan loss provision (LLS) as a measure of uncertainty related to the baking agents’ decision. Specifically, we use the provisioning variance as a proxy for uncertainty, evaluating its similarities with the uncertainty concepts used in the literature. As an empirical strategy, spatial and econometric analyzes are proposed - using municipal data for Brazilian cities between the years 2002 and 2015. Spatial distribution and clusters analyzes were applied, as well as the econometric technique of the generalized method of moments (GMM- SYS). The results exhibits a concentration of municipalities with high degree of uncertainty in the regions with the highest economic activity, such as the South and Southeast regions. It is also possible to verify the procyclical character of the uncertainty, that is, the economic growth negatively affects the uncertainty. On the other hand, the expansion of credit supply acts as a catalyst for uncertainty. In view of the results, the proxy proposed by this work exhibits some similarities with the expected behavior for the level of uncertainty, although the need for alternative investigations is stressed before it can be considered an effective proxy.